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Election Model

Developed by Professor Allan Lichtman in 1981, The 13 Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

Passionate about the intersection of statistics and elections, I decided to try my shot at a 538 style election model. I wrote the entire model in Python, and made the front facing website lichtman2020.com, using NextJS. The model is probabilistic, using current polls and weighing them based on The 13 Keys, as well as current enthusiasm and favorability ratings.

Regardless of personal politics, it is extremely interesting to look back at past elections and see the repeated patterns in regions and states all across this country. The website is updated every 2 weeks, until more polling comes out more often. GitHub repo here!